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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KAA Gent II cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Seraing United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KAA Gent II beat Seraing United 3-1 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KAA Gent II 1.10 xG and Seraing United 1.22 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. KAA Gent II beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KAA Gent II attack 0.76 / defence 1.19 against Seraing United attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 17/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KAA Gent II 33% | Draw 28% | Seraing United 39%, with Seraing United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual KAA Gent II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KAA Gent II 47%, Seraing United 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KAA Gent II's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Seraing United's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, KAA Gent II arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KAA Gent II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Seraing United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights