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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as KAA Gent II defy the odds to beat Patro Eisden 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KAA Gent II beat Patro Eisden 2-1 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KAA Gent II 1.10 xG and Patro Eisden 2.02 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. KAA Gent II beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Patro Eisden landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KAA Gent II attack 0.89 / defence 1.28 against Patro Eisden attack 1.15 / defence 0.94, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KAA Gent II 20% | Draw 21% | Patro Eisden 59%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a KAA Gent II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KAA Gent II 54%, Patro Eisden 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KAA Gent II's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KAA Gent II 1.38 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KAA Gent II win broke the near-deadlock. KAA Gent II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights