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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KAA Gent II and Lommel United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KAA Gent II and Lommel United finished level at 2-2 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KAA Gent II 1.39 xG and Lommel United 1.96 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KAA Gent II attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Lommel United attack 1.17 / defence 1.10, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KAA Gent II 27% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 51%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KAA Gent II 58%, Lommel United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KAA Gent II's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Lommel United's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KAA Gent II 1.38 PPG, Lommel United 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. KAA Gent II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights