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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lokeren-Temse cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KAA Gent II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lokeren-Temse beat KAA Gent II 1-3 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KAA Gent II 0.90 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.16 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lokeren-Temse outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KAA Gent II attack 0.72 / defence 1.02 against Lokeren-Temse attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 14/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KAA Gent II 28% | Draw 31% | Lokeren-Temse 41%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KAA Gent II 43%, Lokeren-Temse 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KAA Gent II's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KAA Gent II 1.29 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lokeren-Temse win broke the near-deadlock. KAA Gent II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights