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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out KAA Gent II 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat KAA Gent II 2-3 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KAA Gent II 0.68 xG and Kortrijk 1.64 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. KAA Gent II beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kortrijk outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KAA Gent II attack 0.59 / defence 1.01 against Kortrijk attack 1.20 / defence 0.97, drawn from 8/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KAA Gent II 15% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 60%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KAA Gent II 38%, Kortrijk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KAA Gent II's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Kortrijk's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. KAA Gent II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights