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Stalemate at K. Lierse S.K.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem finished level at 0-0 at AsterX Group-f Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.08 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.43 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Zulte Waregem landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 28% | Draw 27% | Zulte Waregem 45%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 67%, Zulte Waregem 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights