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SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over K. Lierse S.K..

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat K. Lierse S.K. 0-2 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.19 xG and SK Beveren 1.44 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.00 / defence 0.89 against SK Beveren attack 1.04 / defence 0.93, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 31% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 43%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 55%, SK Beveren 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SK Beveren's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.38 PPG, SK Beveren 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights