K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 41%, yet in-form SK Beveren provide a compelling counter-argument — this K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as K. Lierse S.K. welcome SK Beveren to AsterX Group-f Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K. at AsterX Group-f Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SK Beveren have the better historical record — 6 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for K. Lierse S.K..
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with SK Beveren winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SK Beveren have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 62% versus SK Beveren 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 66% | SK Beveren 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.36 xG and SK Beveren 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.018 / defence 0.865 | SK Beveren attack 1.010 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.329. Data: 56 K. Lierse S.K. games / 55 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 41% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 32%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | SK Beveren 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is K. Lierse S.K. at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SK Beveren (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: K. Lierse S.K. 60% | SK Beveren 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: AsterX Group-f Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 41% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.36 / SK Beveren 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.018 / def 0.865 | SK Beveren attack 1.010 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.16
SK Beveren xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at AsterX Group-f Arena.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
K. Lierse S.K. 0 - 1 SK Beveren.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at AsterX Group-f Arena.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 41% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
Record (7 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 0W | Draws 1 | SK Beveren 6W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.02x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.74
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.52
1.16
SK Beveren xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
8%
12.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.16 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 12D 24L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.56 PPG from 55 outings (24W 14D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: K. Lierse S.K. on 1.25 PPG, SK Beveren on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 12W 6D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 1.43 points per game from 28 outings (11W 7D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.38 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 games (1.25 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 24W 14D 17L in their last 55 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or SK Beveren away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.50 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.43 PPG.
Have K. Lierse S.K. or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
K. Lierse S.K. have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
9
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
From 10 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, SK Beveren have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 68%, SK Beveren 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for K. Lierse S.K. and 50% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 39%; SK Beveren in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 39% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 50% of SK Beveren's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SK Beveren defy the odds to beat K. Lierse S.K. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 at AsterX Group-f Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.36 xG and SK Beveren 1.16 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against SK Beveren attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 41% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 32%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual SK Beveren win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 66%, SK Beveren 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.25 PPG, SK Beveren 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.