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Stalemate at K. Lierse S.K.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 8, as K. Lierse S.K. and Olympic Charleroi drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 2.05 xG and Olympic Charleroi 0.81 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Olympic Charleroi landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.22 / defence 0.87 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.71 / defence 1.51, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 66% | Draw 20% | Olympic Charleroi 14%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 17%, Olympic Charleroi 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. K. Lierse S.K. managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Olympic Charleroi conceded 0 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights