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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 12, as K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United drew 4-4 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.20 xG and Lommel United 1.40 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lommel United outscored their 1.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Lommel United attack 1.12 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 30% | Draw 30% | Lommel United 40%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 48%, Lommel United 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Lommel United's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.23 PPG, Lommel United 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights