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Prediction vindicated as K. Lierse S.K. edge out Lommel United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

K. Lierse S.K. beat Lommel United 1-0 at AsterX Group-f Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 2.20 xG and Lommel United 1.59 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lommel United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.22 / defence 1.02 against Lommel United attack 1.11 / defence 1.27, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 52% | Draw 20% | Lommel United 28%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 71%, Lommel United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Lommel United's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.20 PPG, Lommel United 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights