🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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K. Lierse S.K. and Lokeren-Temse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

K. Lierse S.K. and Lokeren-Temse finished level at 1-1 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.06 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.60 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.79 / defence 1.15 against Lokeren-Temse attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 25% | Draw 25% | Lokeren-Temse 50%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 48%, Lokeren-Temse 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.28 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights