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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Liège edge out K. Lierse S.K. 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-2 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 0.96 xG and Liège 0.99 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Liège outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.99 / defence 0.80 against Liège attack 0.90 / defence 0.79, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 33% | Draw 33% | Liège 34%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 47%, Liège 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Liège's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.26 PPG, Liège 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights