K. Lierse S.K. vs Liège – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.16x the league average against Liège's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Liège's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.62
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.37
1.37
Liège xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
14%
7.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
4%
28.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Liège?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Liège expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.37 for Liège, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Liège?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.