🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as K. Lierse S.K. edge out KRC Genk II 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

K. Lierse S.K. beat KRC Genk II 2-1 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.60 xG and KRC Genk II 1.01 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against KRC Genk II attack 0.75 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Draw 27% | KRC Genk II 23%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 48%, KRC Genk II 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights