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KAA Gent II cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over K. Lierse S.K..

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KAA Gent II beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-3 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.14 xG and KAA Gent II 1.19 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. KAA Gent II outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against KAA Gent II attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 35% | Draw 28% | KAA Gent II 37%, with KAA Gent II to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 41%, KAA Gent II 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

KAA Gent II's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.09 PPG, KAA Gent II 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KAA Gent II win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KAA Gent II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights