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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as K. Lierse S.K. edge out AS Eupen 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

K. Lierse S.K. beat AS Eupen 3-2 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.17 xG and AS Eupen 1.14 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Eupen outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against AS Eupen attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/30 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 36% | Draw 28% | AS Eupen 35%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 53%, AS Eupen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

AS Eupen's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.23 PPG, AS Eupen 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Eupen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights