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Stalemate at Francs Borains's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 18, as Francs Borains and SK Beveren drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.44 xG and SK Beveren 1.29 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SK Beveren landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.94 / defence 1.21 against SK Beveren attack 0.78 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 41% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 34%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 67%, SK Beveren 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Francs Borains's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SK Beveren's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights