Francs Borains 1-2 RWDM – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RWDM at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs RWDM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Francs Borains host RWDM at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Francs Borains have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RWDM — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. RWDM have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RWDM away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RWDM — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
RWDM trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 54% versus RWDM 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 63% | RWDM 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.93 xG and RWDM 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.831 / defence 1.144 | RWDM attack 1.140 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.417. RWDM's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 Francs Borains games / 5 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 18% | Draw 23% | RWDM 59%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 5.56 | Draw 4.35 | RWDM 1.69. The model has a clear lean to RWDM (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RWDM as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 60% | RWDM 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs RWDM | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 18% | Draw 23% | RWDM 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Francs Borains 0.93 / RWDM 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.831 / def 1.144 | RWDM attack 1.140 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: RWDM (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.85
RWDM xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs RWDM kick off?
Francs Borains vs RWDM kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Francs Borains 1 - 2 RWDM.
Where is Francs Borains vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs RWDM part of?
Francs Borains vs RWDM is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 18% chance of winning, RWDM a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Francs Borains and RWDM will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and RWDM?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Francs Borains and RWDM in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. RWDM (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against RWDM's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, RWDM's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
18%
5.48
23%
4.33
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.78
1.85
RWDM xG
5.48
18%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
3%
34.80
23%
4.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.5 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.85 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 11W 5D 19L from 35 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Francs Borains, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RWDM, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 18L across 35 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for RWDM, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Francs Borains on 1.09 PPG, RWDM on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 5W 3D 9L from 17 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RWDM's away record stands at 4W 2D 11L across 17 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Francs Borains are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.23 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Early Season
RWDM
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and RWDM in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 11W 5D 19L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while RWDM have gone 8W 9D 18L in their last 35 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or RWDM away?
Francs Borains's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.06 PPG; RWDM away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Francs Borains's record when hosting RWDM specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
1
Draws
2
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and RWDM?
From 4 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, RWDM have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and RWDM last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Francs Borains 0-0 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and RWDM?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
RWDM see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 47%, RWDM 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Francs Borains and 76% for RWDM. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains have failed to score in 35% of games; RWDM in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play RWDM?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 53% of RWDM's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs RWDM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Francs Borains's matches and 76% of RWDM's.
Do Francs Borains and RWDM tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, RWDM in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RWDM edge out Francs Borains 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat Francs Borains 1-2 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.93 xG and RWDM 1.85 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against RWDM attack 1.14 / defence 0.78, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 18% | Draw 23% | RWDM 59%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 63%, RWDM 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
RWDM's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.09 PPG, RWDM 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RWDM win broke the near-deadlock. RWDM (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.