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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 9, as Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II drew 3-3 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.78 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.01 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Francs Borains beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RSC Anderlecht II outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.77 / defence 0.89 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 27% | Draw 34% | RSC Anderlecht II 39%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 58%, RSC Anderlecht II 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Francs Borains's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.03 PPG, RSC Anderlecht II 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights