Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Francs Borains at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Francs Borains welcome Patro Eisden to Stade Robert Urbain. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Francs Borains — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Francs Borains have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Robert Urbain this season.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Patro Eisden have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Patro Eisden have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Francs Borains carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Patro Eisden have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Francs Borains.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 0–4 with Patro Eisden winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Patro Eisden have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Patro Eisden trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 33% versus Patro Eisden 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 42% | Patro Eisden 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.80 xG and Patro Eisden 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.972 / defence 0.771 | Patro Eisden attack 1.070 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.307. Patro Eisden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Francs Borains's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Francs Borains's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Francs Borains games / 36 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 54% | Draw 23% | Patro Eisden 23%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Patro Eisden 4.35. Francs Borains hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Patro Eisden lead the H2H ledger, but Francs Borains carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Francs Borains at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Francs Borains offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Francs Borains 20% | Patro Eisden 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 54% | Draw 23% | Patro Eisden 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Francs Borains 1.80 / Patro Eisden 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.972 / def 0.771 | Patro Eisden attack 1.070 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Patro Eisden xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Stade Robert Urbain.
Where is Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden part of?
Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 54% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Francs Borains and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Patro Eisden?
Record (6 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 1 | Patro Eisden 4W.
What form are Francs Borains and Patro Eisden in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Patro Eisden (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.32
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.88
1.08
Patro Eisden xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
4%
26.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.08 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 12W 8D 16L from 36 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Francs Borains, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 12L across 36 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Patro Eisden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Francs Borains on 1.22 PPG, Patro Eisden on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 7W 5D 6L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Francs Borains are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.42 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Early Season
Patro Eisden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Patro Eisden away?
Francs Borains's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.44 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Francs Borains and Patro Eisden runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2026, when Patro Eisden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Francs Borains's record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
1
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Patro Eisden?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Patro Eisden 4-0 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 17%, Patro Eisden 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Francs Borains) and 50% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Francs Borains have failed to score in 50% of games; Patro Eisden in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 61% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Francs Borains's recent games and 50% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.