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Francs Borains cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Patro Eisden.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Francs Borains beat Patro Eisden 2-0 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 2, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.27 xG and Patro Eisden 1.58 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Patro Eisden landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Patro Eisden attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 31% | Draw 25% | Patro Eisden 45%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Francs Borains win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 63%, Patro Eisden 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Francs Borains's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Francs Borains winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights