Francs Borains 0-0 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Francs Borains welcome Patro Eisden to Stade Robert Urbain. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Francs Borains — All Games: 3W 0D 5L from 8 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.12 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have recorded 4W 2D 2L from 8 outings — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.62 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Patro Eisden have posted 2W 1D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Patro Eisden's 1.75 PPG return is 0.63 points per game ahead of Francs Borains's 1.12 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Patro Eisden trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 38% versus Patro Eisden 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 50% | Patro Eisden 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.10 xG and Patro Eisden 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.866 / defence 1.174 | Patro Eisden attack 0.992 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.397. Data: 8 Francs Borains games / 8 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 26% | Draw 25% | Patro Eisden 50%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Patro Eisden 2.00. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Francs Borains 25% | Patro Eisden 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 26% | Draw 25% | Patro Eisden 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Francs Borains 1.10 / Patro Eisden 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.866 / def 1.174 | Patro Eisden attack 0.992 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Patro Eisden xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Francs Borains 0 - 0 Patro Eisden.
Where is Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden part of?
Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 26% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Francs Borains and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Patro Eisden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Francs Borains and Patro Eisden in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-0D-5L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
26%
3.87
25%
4.06
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.73
1.62
Patro Eisden xG
3.87
26%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
5%
19.67
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.62 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 3W 0D 5L from 8 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 2L across 8 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Patro Eisden by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Francs Borains heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Francs Borains are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.62 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Patro Eisden in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 3W 0D 5L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.50 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Francs Borains and Patro Eisden runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2026, when Patro Eisden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Francs Borains's record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
1
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Patro Eisden?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Patro Eisden 4-0 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Francs Borains see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 25%, Patro Eisden 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Francs Borains) and 75% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 75% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Francs Borains's recent games and 75% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Francs Borains's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 9, as Francs Borains and Patro Eisden drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.10 xG and Patro Eisden 1.62 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Patro Eisden landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against Patro Eisden attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 26% | Draw 25% | Patro Eisden 50%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 50%, Patro Eisden 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.