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Stalemate at Francs Borains's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Francs Borains and Lommel United finished level at 0-0 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 3, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.77 xG and Lommel United 1.35 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Lommel United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against Lommel United attack 1.14 / defence 1.23, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 47% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 29%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 61%, Lommel United 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Francs Borains's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Lommel United's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.13 PPG, Lommel United 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights