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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Francs Borains and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Francs Borains and KRC Genk II finished level at 2-2 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 33, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.57 xG and KRC Genk II 1.06 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. KRC Genk II outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.86 / defence 0.78 against KRC Genk II attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 49% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 25%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 51%, KRC Genk II 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Francs Borains's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.10 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights