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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Francs Borains and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Francs Borains and KRC Genk II finished level at 2-2 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.66 xG and KRC Genk II 1.40 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against KRC Genk II attack 0.85 / defence 1.28, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 44% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 32%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 67%, KRC Genk II 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Francs Borains's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.07 PPG, KRC Genk II 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights