Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Francs Borains at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Francs Borains and KAA Gent II meet at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Francs Borains (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Francs Borains have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
KAA Gent II have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. KAA Gent II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, KAA Gent II have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Francs Borains. A 1.00 PPG lead over KAA Gent II (1.90 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Francs Borains, 1 for KAA Gent II and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with KAA Gent II winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
KAA Gent II — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 35% versus KAA Gent II 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 43% | KAA Gent II 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.84 xG and KAA Gent II 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 1.070 / defence 0.857 | KAA Gent II attack 0.972 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.364. Data: 37 Francs Borains games / 37 KAA Gent II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 54% | Draw 23% | KAA Gent II 23%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | KAA Gent II 4.35. Francs Borains hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Francs Borains at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Francs Borains 30% | KAA Gent II 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 54% | Draw 23% | KAA Gent II 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Francs Borains 1.84 / KAA Gent II 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 1.070 / def 0.857 | KAA Gent II attack 0.972 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.14
KAA Gent II xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II kick off?
Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stade Robert Urbain.
Where is Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II part of?
Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 54% chance of winning, KAA Gent II a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Francs Borains and KAA Gent II will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and KAA Gent II?
Record (2 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 0 | KAA Gent II 1W.
What form are Francs Borains and KAA Gent II in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. KAA Gent II (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Francs Borains's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against KAA Gent II's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — KAA Gent II's attack (0.97x) against Francs Borains's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.39
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.98
1.14
KAA Gent II xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
4%
27.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and KAA Gent II expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.14 for KAA Gent II, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Francs Borains come into this having played 37 games, going 13W 8D 16L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Francs Borains, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, KAA Gent II sit at 1.24 PPG from 37 outings (13W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for KAA Gent II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Francs Borains against 1.24 for KAA Gent II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Francs Borains's home form reads 8W 5D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, KAA Gent II have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (8W 2D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Francs Borains are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; KAA Gent II are on 1.30 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Early Season
KAA Gent II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and KAA Gent II in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 13W 8D 16L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while KAA Gent II have gone 13W 7D 17L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or KAA Gent II away?
Francs Borains's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.53 PPG; KAA Gent II away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or KAA Gent II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, KAA Gent II in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
0
Draws
1
KAA Gent II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and KAA Gent II?
From 2 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, KAA Gent II have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and KAA Gent II last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when KAA Gent II 1-0 Francs Borains.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
KAA Gent II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 21% (Francs Borains) and 42% (KAA Gent II) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Francs Borains) and 58% (KAA Gent II).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Francs Borains have failed to score in 47% of games; KAA Gent II in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / KAA Gent II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play KAA Gent II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 42% of KAA Gent II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Francs Borains's recent games and 58% of KAA Gent II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and KAA Gent II tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, KAA Gent II in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.