Francs Borains 1-0 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Urbain plays host to Francs Borains versus K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Francs Borains have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's home record at Stade Robert Urbain: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Robert Urbain this season.
K. Lierse S.K. (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Francs Borains, 1.50 for K. Lierse S.K. — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Francs Borains have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, K. Lierse S.K. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Francs Borains 1W, K. Lierse S.K. 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–4 with K. Lierse S.K. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
K. Lierse S.K. — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 55% versus K. Lierse S.K. 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Francs Borains 64% | K. Lierse S.K. 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.22 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.850 / defence 1.221 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.948 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.374. Data: 53 Francs Borains games / 53 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 29% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 46%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | K. Lierse S.K. 2.17. K. Lierse S.K. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 80% | K. Lierse S.K. 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 29% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Francs Borains 1.22 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.850 / def 1.221 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.948 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.59
K. Lierse S.K. xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Francs Borains 1 - 0 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 29% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (3 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 0 | K. Lierse S.K. 2W.
What form are Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K. in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against K. Lierse S.K.'s defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — K. Lierse S.K.'s attack (0.95x) against Francs Borains's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
29%
3.47
26%
3.91
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.81
1.59
K. Lierse S.K. xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.03
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.59 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Francs Borains come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 9D 28L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, K. Lierse S.K. sit at 1.25 PPG from 53 outings (18W 12D 23L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Francs Borains against 1.25 for K. Lierse S.K.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Francs Borains's home form reads 6W 5D 15L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, K. Lierse S.K. have taken 1.04 points per game from 26 outings (7W 6D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Francs Borains are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.43 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 16W 9D 28L in their last 53 games (1.08 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 0.88 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: K. Lierse S.K. won 4-0 on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Francs Borains have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Francs Borains
0
Draws
3
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 3, K. Lierse S.K. have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when K. Lierse S.K. 0-2 Francs Borains.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 58%, K. Lierse S.K. 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Francs Borains and 62% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains have failed to score in 31% of games; K. Lierse S.K. in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Francs Borains's games and 58% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Francs Borains's matches and 62% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Francs Borains defy the odds to beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-0 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.22 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.59 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.85 / defence 1.22 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 29% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 46%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Francs Borains win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 64%, K. Lierse S.K. 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.08 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. Francs Borains (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.