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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AS Eupen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Francs Borains.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Eupen beat Francs Borains 0-3 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 5, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.46 xG and AS Eupen 0.97 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 1.5 short of their projected output. AS Eupen outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 1.00 / defence 0.80 against AS Eupen attack 1.01 / defence 1.20, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 48% | Draw 26% | AS Eupen 25%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a AS Eupen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 59%, AS Eupen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Francs Borains's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AS Eupen's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.12 PPG, AS Eupen 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Eupen win broke the near-deadlock. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Eupen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights