Francs Borains vs AS Eupen – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Francs Borains's attack rating (0.71) and AS Eupen's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AS Eupen's attack (1.13x) against Francs Borains's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
21%
4.71
23%
4.38
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.86
1.83
AS Eupen xG
4.71
21%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
3%
29.28
20%
5.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.83 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs AS Eupen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.