Excelsior Virton 2-0 Royal Excel Mouscron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Royal Excel Mouscron (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Excelsior Virton face Royal Excel Mouscron.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Yvan Georges plays host to Excelsior Virton versus Royal Excel Mouscron in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 3 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior Virton have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior Virton's home record at Stade Yvan Georges: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Royal Excel Mouscron's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Royal Excel Mouscron have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Royal Excel Mouscron arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Excelsior Virton have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Royal Excel Mouscron in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Excelsior Virton 0W, Royal Excel Mouscron 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Royal Excel Mouscron winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Excelsior Virton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Royal Excel Mouscron goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior Virton 44% versus Royal Excel Mouscron 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior Virton 52% | Royal Excel Mouscron 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 0.78 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.663 / defence 1.361 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.771 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.165. Excelsior Virton's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Excelsior Virton games / 25 Royal Excel Mouscron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 24% | Draw 30% | Royal Excel Mouscron 46%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Royal Excel Mouscron 2.17. Royal Excel Mouscron hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Royal Excel Mouscron are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Royal Excel Mouscron if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior Virton 30% | Royal Excel Mouscron 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 24% | Draw 30% | Royal Excel Mouscron 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Excelsior Virton 0.78 / Royal Excel Mouscron 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.663 / def 1.361 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.771 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Royal Excel Mouscron (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Excelsior Virton 2 - 0 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Where is Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron part of?
Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 24% chance of winning, Royal Excel Mouscron a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Royal Excel Mouscron the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron?
Record (3 meetings): Excelsior Virton 0W | Draws 1 | Royal Excel Mouscron 2W.
What form are Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Excelsior Virton's attack at 0.66x the league average against Royal Excel Mouscron's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Royal Excel Mouscron's attack (0.77x) against Excelsior Virton's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Royal Excel Mouscron Win
24%
4.21
30%
3.36
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
2.00
1.22
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
7%
14.30
21%
4.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 16.5 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 1.22 for Royal Excel Mouscron, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior Virton come into this having played 25 games, going 4W 5D 16L for 0.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Royal Excel Mouscron sit at 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Royal Excel Mouscron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Royal Excel Mouscron carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Excelsior Virton's home form reads 3W 2D 7L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Royal Excel Mouscron have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior Virton are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Royal Excel Mouscron are on 1.16 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Blended
Royal Excel Mouscron
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 4W 5D 16L in their last 25 games (0.68 PPG), while Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 8W 6D 11L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior Virton at home or Royal Excel Mouscron away?
Royal Excel Mouscron's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior Virton at home: 0.92 PPG; Royal Excel Mouscron away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior Virton have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Royal Excel Mouscron — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Excelsior Virton
1
Draws
2
Royal Excel Mouscron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 1, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2022, when Excelsior Virton 2-0 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron?
Royal Excel Mouscron have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Royal Excel Mouscron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior Virton 33%, Royal Excel Mouscron 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Excelsior Virton) and 50% (Royal Excel Mouscron).
On the defensive side: Royal Excel Mouscron in 33%; Excelsior Virton have failed to score in 58% of games; Royal Excel Mouscron in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / Royal Excel Mouscron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play Royal Excel Mouscron?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Excelsior Virton's recent matches and 42% of Royal Excel Mouscron's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Excelsior Virton's recent games and 50% of Royal Excel Mouscron's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Royal Excel Mouscron in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior Virton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Royal Excel Mouscron.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior Virton beat Royal Excel Mouscron 2-0 at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 0.78 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.22 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Excelsior Virton beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Royal Excel Mouscron landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.66 / defence 1.36 against Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.77 / defence 1.13, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 24% | Draw 30% | Royal Excel Mouscron 46%, with Royal Excel Mouscron to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior Virton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 52%, Royal Excel Mouscron 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Royal Excel Mouscron's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Royal Excel Mouscron arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.68. Form was overturned, with Excelsior Virton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Royal Excel Mouscron (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.