Excelsior Virton 1-2 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Deinze (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Excelsior Virton face Deinze.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Relegation Round - 2 sees Deinze travel to Stade Yvan Georges to take on Excelsior Virton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior Virton stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Yvan Georges, Excelsior Virton have gone 0W 4D 6L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Deinze have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Deinze's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Excelsior Virton's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Deinze, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Excelsior Virton.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Deinze winning.
It is worth noting that Deinze have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior Virton in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Deinze in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior Virton 53% versus Deinze 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior Virton 51% | Deinze 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 0.77 xG and Deinze 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.603 / defence 1.016 | Deinze attack 0.711 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.453. Excelsior Virton's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Excelsior Virton games / 50 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 26% | Draw 32% | Deinze 42%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Deinze 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Excelsior Virton's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior Virton 40% | Deinze 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 26% | Draw 32% | Deinze 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Excelsior Virton 0.77 / Deinze 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.603 / def 1.016 | Deinze attack 0.711 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Deinze (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Deinze xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs Deinze kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs Deinze kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Excelsior Virton 1 - 2 Deinze.
Where is Excelsior Virton vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs Deinze part of?
Excelsior Virton vs Deinze is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 26% chance of winning, Deinze a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Excelsior Virton and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Deinze?
Record (6 meetings): Excelsior Virton 0W | Draws 2 | Deinze 4W.
What form are Excelsior Virton and Deinze in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Deinze (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Excelsior Virton's attack rating (0.60) and Deinze's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Excelsior Virton's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
26%
3.81
32%
3.10
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
1.82
1.05
Deinze xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 17.0 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 1.05 for Deinze, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior Virton come into this having played 51 games, going 7W 14D 30L for 0.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.35 PPG from 51 outings (18W 15D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Excelsior Virton's home form reads 4W 7D 14L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Deinze have taken 1.16 points per game from 25 outings (7W 8D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior Virton are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.51 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and Deinze in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 7W 14D 30L in their last 51 games (0.69 PPG), while Deinze have gone 18W 15D 18L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior Virton at home or Deinze away?
Deinze's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior Virton at home: 0.76 PPG; Deinze away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Deinze have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2021, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior Virton's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Excelsior Virton
2
Draws
6
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Deinze?
From 8 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 0, Deinze have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Deinze 3-1 Excelsior Virton.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior Virton and Deinze?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior Virton 40%, Deinze 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Excelsior Virton) and 48% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Excelsior Virton have failed to score in 52% of games; Deinze in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Excelsior Virton's recent matches and 52% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior Virton vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Excelsior Virton's recent games and 48% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior Virton and Deinze tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Deinze in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Deinze edge out Excelsior Virton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Excelsior Virton 1-2 at Stade Yvan Georges, Relegation Round - 2, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 0.77 xG and Deinze 1.05 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Deinze outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.60 / defence 1.02 against Deinze attack 0.71 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 26% | Draw 32% | Deinze 42%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 51%, Deinze 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Deinze's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win. Deinze (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.