Excelsior Virton 1-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 37%, yet in-form Excelsior Virton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beerschot VA make the trip to Stade Yvan Georges to face Excelsior Virton in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Excelsior Virton (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Excelsior Virton have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior Virton's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stade Yvan Georges this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Beerschot VA have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beerschot VA away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Excelsior Virton's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Excelsior Virton — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior Virton 52% versus Beerschot VA 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior Virton 46% | Beerschot VA 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 1.36 xG and Beerschot VA 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.968 / defence 0.947 | Beerschot VA attack 0.925 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.577. Data: 33 Excelsior Virton games / 5 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 36% | Draw 28% | Beerschot VA 37%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Beerschot VA 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beerschot VA are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Excelsior Virton (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior Virton 40% | Beerschot VA 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 36% | Draw 28% | Beerschot VA 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Excelsior Virton 1.36 / Beerschot VA 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.968 / def 0.947 | Beerschot VA attack 0.925 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.577 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Beerschot VA xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA?
Excelsior Virton 1 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA part of?
Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 36% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Excelsior Virton's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.93x) against Excelsior Virton's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 33/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.59
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
2.74
1.38
Beerschot VA xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 1.38 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Excelsior Virton have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 6W 10D 17L record — D-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beerschot VA's form line: 6W 4D 23L from 33 games, 0.67 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Excelsior Virton against 0.67 for Beerschot VA. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Excelsior Virton have posted 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L).
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 1W 3D 12L from 16 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior Virton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior Virton are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.03 scored and 2.09 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Early Season
Beerschot VA
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 6W 10D 17L in their last 33 games (0.85 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 6W 4D 23L in their last 33 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior Virton at home or Beerschot VA away?
Excelsior Virton's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior Virton at home: 1.00 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Excelsior Virton
0
Draws
2
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA?
From 2 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2022, when Beerschot VA 3-0 Excelsior Virton.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior Virton 44%, Beerschot VA 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Excelsior Virton) and 62% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Excelsior Virton have failed to score in 44% of games; Beerschot VA in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Excelsior Virton's recent matches and 62% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior Virton vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Excelsior Virton's recent games and 62% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior Virton and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out Excelsior Virton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Excelsior Virton 1-2 at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 1.36 xG and Beerschot VA 1.38 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Beerschot VA attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 36% | Draw 28% | Beerschot VA 37%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 46%, Beerschot VA 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior Virton 0.85 PPG, Beerschot VA 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.