Deinze 3-1 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deinze vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SK Beveren make the trip to Dakota Arena to face Deinze in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Deinze (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dakota Arena, Deinze have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SK Beveren's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Deinze against 1.00 for SK Beveren. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Deinze lead 1W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Deinze — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 62% versus SK Beveren 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 62% | SK Beveren 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.54 xG and SK Beveren 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.070 / defence 0.867 | SK Beveren attack 0.715 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.321. Data: 39 Deinze games / 39 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 54% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 20%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | SK Beveren 5.00. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deinze if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Deinze 80% | SK Beveren 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 54% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Deinze 1.54 / SK Beveren 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.070 / def 0.867 | SK Beveren attack 0.715 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Deinze (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
0.82
SK Beveren xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs SK Beveren kick off?
Deinze vs SK Beveren kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Deinze 3 - 1 SK Beveren.
Where is Deinze vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs SK Beveren part of?
Deinze vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 54% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Deinze and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and SK Beveren?
Record (8 meetings): Deinze 1W | Draws 4 | SK Beveren 3W.
What form are Deinze and SK Beveren in?
Deinze (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Deinze's attack rating (1.07) and SK Beveren's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (0.71x) against Deinze's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.89
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.36
0.82
SK Beveren xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
4%
23.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Deinze and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Deinze and 0.82 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 20W 8D 11L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 15W 10D 14L from 39 games, 1.41 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Deinze against 1.41 for SK Beveren. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Deinze have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 6W 5D 8L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Deinze are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.33 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 20W 8D 11L in their last 39 games (1.74 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 15W 10D 14L in their last 39 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or SK Beveren away?
Deinze's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.84 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Deinze or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won 4-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deinze have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Deinze
4
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and SK Beveren?
From 9 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, SK Beveren have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Deinze 3-1 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deinze 68%, SK Beveren 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Deinze) and 47% (SK Beveren). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Deinze keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; SK Beveren in 37%; SK Beveren in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Deinze's recent matches and 37% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deinze vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Deinze's matches and 47% of SK Beveren's.
Do Deinze and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deinze cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat SK Beveren 3-1 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.54 xG and SK Beveren 0.82 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Deinze beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against SK Beveren attack 0.71 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 54% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 20%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 62%, SK Beveren 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
SK Beveren's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.74 PPG, SK Beveren 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deinze win broke the near-deadlock. Deinze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.