Deinze vs Seraing United – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Deinze's attack rating (0.94) and Seraing United's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Seraing United's attack (0.84x) against Deinze's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
44%
2.27
25%
3.96
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.74
1.23
Seraing United xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Seraing United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Deinze and Seraing United expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Deinze and 1.23 for Seraing United, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Seraing United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.