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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Club Brugge II and Olympic Charleroi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Schiervelde Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Club Brugge II and Olympic Charleroi drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge II 1.03 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge II attack 0.67 / defence 1.31 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.63 / defence 1.23, drawn from 38/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Club Brugge II 31% | Draw 32% | Olympic Charleroi 37%, with Olympic Charleroi to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge II 56%, Olympic Charleroi 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Club Brugge II's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Club Brugge II 0.33 PPG, Olympic Charleroi 0.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights