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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as KRC Genk II defy the odds to beat Club Brugge II 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KRC Genk II beat Club Brugge II 1-2 at Schiervelde Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge II 1.37 xG and KRC Genk II 0.94 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. KRC Genk II outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge II attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against KRC Genk II attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Club Brugge II 47% | Draw 28% | KRC Genk II 26%, with Club Brugge II to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual KRC Genk II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge II 61%, KRC Genk II 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Club Brugge II's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Club Brugge II arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.48. Form was overturned, with KRC Genk II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights