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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Club Brugge II vs K. Lierse S.K. encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Club Brugge II welcome K. Lierse S.K. to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Club Brugge II have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Club Brugge II haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Club Brugge II's home record at : 3W 1D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Club Brugge II are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, K. Lierse S.K. stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. K. Lierse S.K. haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

K. Lierse S.K.'s away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. K. Lierse S.K.'s 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Club Brugge II's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Club Brugge II have won 5, K. Lierse S.K. 5, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with K. Lierse S.K. winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Club Brugge II in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

K. Lierse S.K. in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Club Brugge II 56% versus K. Lierse S.K. 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge II 56% | K. Lierse S.K. 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge II 1.28 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge II attack 0.901 / defence 1.079 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.972 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.358. Data: 32 Club Brugge II games / 32 K. Lierse S.K. games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Club Brugge II 34% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 41%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge II 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | K. Lierse S.K. 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, K. Lierse S.K. are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Club Brugge II 40% | K. Lierse S.K. 50%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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