🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Club Brugge II and Francs Borains share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Club Brugge II and Francs Borains finished level at 1-1 at Schiervelde Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge II 1.45 xG and Francs Borains 1.29 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge II attack 1.05 / defence 0.92 against Francs Borains attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Club Brugge II 41% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 33%, with Club Brugge II to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge II 62%, Francs Borains 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Club Brugge II's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Francs Borains's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Club Brugge II arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights