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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beerschot VA and SK Beveren share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Beerschot VA and SK Beveren drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 0.93 xG and SK Beveren 1.82 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SK Beveren landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against SK Beveren attack 1.50 / defence 0.73, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 18% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 58%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 52%, SK Beveren 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beerschot VA's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

SK Beveren's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights