Beerschot VA 0-1 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Patro Eisden travel to Olympisch Stadion to take on Beerschot VA. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Beerschot VA have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Olympisch Stadion, Beerschot VA have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympisch Stadion.
Patro Eisden — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Patro Eisden away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Beerschot VA) versus 1.60 (Patro Eisden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Beerschot VA, 0 for Patro Eisden and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with Beerschot VA winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Beerschot VA trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Patro Eisden trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 55% versus Patro Eisden 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 55% | Patro Eisden 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 0.99 xG and Patro Eisden 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.965 / defence 0.677 | Patro Eisden attack 0.532 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.370. Patro Eisden's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Beerschot VA's defence rating of 0.677 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Beerschot VA games / 29 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 35% | Patro Eisden 18%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.13 | Draw 2.86 | Patro Eisden 5.56. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 25% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Patro Eisden's lower xG of 0.49 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 25%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beerschot VA are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 19% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 25%. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 40% | Patro Eisden 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 35% | Patro Eisden 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 25% | xG Beerschot VA 0.99 / Patro Eisden 0.49 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.965 / def 0.677 | Patro Eisden attack 0.532 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
0.49
Patro Eisden xG
25%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden?
Beerschot VA 0 - 1 Patro Eisden.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden part of?
Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 47% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 18% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 25% probability that both Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden?
Record (1 meetings): Beerschot VA 1W | Draws 0 | Patro Eisden 0W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 0.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (21.0%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 58% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
47%
2.13
35%
2.85
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
22.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
1.49
0.49
Patro Eisden xG
2.13
47%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
25%
BTTS Yes
4.08
75%
BTTS No
1.33
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.6 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 22.4 | 11.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.0%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 0.49 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 1.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beerschot VA come into this having played 29 games, going 17W 5D 7L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Patro Eisden sit at 1.66 PPG from 29 outings (13W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beerschot VA on 1.93 PPG, Patro Eisden on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Beerschot VA's home form reads 7W 4D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Patro Eisden have taken 1.50 points per game from 14 outings (5W 6D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.34 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Patro Eisden in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Current Season
Patro Eisden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 17W 5D 7L in their last 29 games (1.93 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 13W 9D 7L in their last 29 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Patro Eisden away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.79 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Beerschot VA or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Mar 2026, when Beerschot VA won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Beerschot VA
1
Draws
2
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden?
From 6 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 3, Patro Eisden have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Beerschot VA 3-2 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Patro Eisden?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 50%, Patro Eisden 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beerschot VA) and 36% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Patro Eisden in 57%; Patro Eisden in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 29% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 36% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Patro Eisden defy the odds to beat Beerschot VA 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Beerschot VA 0-1 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 0.99 xG and Patro Eisden 0.49 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Beerschot VA fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.96 / defence 0.68 against Patro Eisden attack 0.53 / defence 0.78, drawn from 51/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 35% | Patro Eisden 18%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Patro Eisden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 44% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 55%, Patro Eisden 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.93 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.