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Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out Olympic Charleroi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beerschot VA beat Olympic Charleroi 2-1 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.73 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.52 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Olympic Charleroi attack 1.09 / defence 1.31, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 43% | Draw 23% | Olympic Charleroi 34%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 50%, Olympic Charleroi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beerschot VA's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights