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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Beerschot VA run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Liège.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beerschot VA beat Liège 3-0 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.16 xG and Liège 1.02 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Beerschot VA beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Liège landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Liège attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 37% | Draw 33% | Liège 30%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 54%, Liège 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beerschot VA's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Liège's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.23 PPG, Liège 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Liège (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights