Beerschot VA 3-2 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beerschot VA at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KRC Genk II make the trip to Olympisch Stadion to face Beerschot VA in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 27 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beerschot VA have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA at Olympisch Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympisch Stadion. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympisch Stadion this season.
KRC Genk II (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Beerschot VA. A 1.10 PPG lead over KRC Genk II (2.10 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beerschot VA lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Beerschot VA winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 61% versus KRC Genk II 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 61% | KRC Genk II 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.49 xG and KRC Genk II 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.836 / defence 0.853 | KRC Genk II attack 0.689 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.473. Data: 19 Beerschot VA games / 18 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 52% | Draw 26% | KRC Genk II 22%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | KRC Genk II 4.55. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beerschot VA as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Beerschot VA 40% | KRC Genk II 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 52% | Draw 26% | KRC Genk II 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Beerschot VA 1.49 / KRC Genk II 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.836 / def 0.853 | KRC Genk II attack 0.689 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
0.86
KRC Genk II xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 January 2023 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Beerschot VA 3 - 2 KRC Genk II.
Where is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II part of?
Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 52% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
Record (1 meetings): Beerschot VA 1W | Draws 0 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beerschot VA's attack rating (0.84) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (0.69x) against Beerschot VA's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.81
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.35
0.86
KRC Genk II xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
5%
20.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 0.86 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 10W 2D 6L from 18 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 11L across 18 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 4W 1D 3L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beerschot VA have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 10W 2D 6L in their last 18 games (1.78 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 4W 3D 11L in their last 18 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or KRC Genk II away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.62 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
From 6 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 6, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Beerschot VA 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 38%, KRC Genk II 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Beerschot VA) and 62% (KRC Genk II).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play KRC Genk II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 62% of KRC Genk II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 62% of KRC Genk II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out KRC Genk II 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat KRC Genk II 3-2 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.49 xG and KRC Genk II 0.86 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Beerschot VA beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KRC Genk II outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.84 / defence 0.85 against KRC Genk II attack 0.69 / defence 1.20, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 52% | Draw 26% | KRC Genk II 22%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 61%, KRC Genk II 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.