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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as KAA Gent II defy the odds to beat Beerschot VA 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KAA Gent II beat Beerschot VA 1-2 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.46 xG and KAA Gent II 1.23 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against KAA Gent II attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 42% | Draw 26% | KAA Gent II 32%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual KAA Gent II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 44%, KAA Gent II 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beerschot VA's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

KAA Gent II's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with KAA Gent II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights