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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out AS Eupen 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat AS Eupen 1-2 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.16 xG and SK Beveren 1.64 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against SK Beveren attack 1.24 / defence 0.84, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 27% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 49%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 61%, SK Beveren 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

SK Beveren's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights