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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AS Eupen and RWDM share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Eupen and RWDM finished level at 2-2 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.07 xG and RWDM 0.99 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AS Eupen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RWDM outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.99 / defence 0.68 against RWDM attack 1.06 / defence 0.97, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 36% | Draw 32% | RWDM 32%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 61%, RWDM 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

RWDM's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RWDM (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights