🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as RWDM edge out AS Eupen 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RWDM beat AS Eupen 0-1 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.31 xG and RWDM 2.32 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. RWDM landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.82 / defence 1.43 against RWDM attack 1.17 / defence 1.10, drawn from 15/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 21% | Draw 19% | RWDM 60%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 57%, RWDM 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

RWDM's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Eupen 0.84 PPG, RWDM 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RWDM win broke the near-deadlock. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. RWDM (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights