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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AS Eupen and RSC Anderlecht II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 23, as AS Eupen and RSC Anderlecht II drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.34 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.69 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.86 / defence 1.44 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 30% | Draw 24% | RSC Anderlecht II 45%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 55%, RSC Anderlecht II 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Eupen 0.75 PPG, RSC Anderlecht II 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Eupen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights