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AS Eupen and Olympic Charleroi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 19, as AS Eupen and Olympic Charleroi drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.76 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.32 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Olympic Charleroi attack 1.07 / defence 1.31, drawn from 45/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 48% | Draw 23% | Olympic Charleroi 29%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 47%, Olympic Charleroi 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Eupen arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AS Eupen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights